Good evening everyone and Happy Friday! Below is the First Prediction for Monday, December 11, 2023.

A cold front is anticipated to pass through the area Sunday into Monday. A few inches of rainfall is expected during the day on Sunday. After midnight but before dawn on Monday, a transition to snow will occur. The question is how fast does the front move and how does precipitation move along it (is it spread out in pieces or consolidated into one entity?). This will determine how much snowfall the area will receive. Given the temperature forecast, I anticipate the valley areas to receive only a coating as temperatures will be predominately above freezing, whereas the elevated areas may see a few inches of accumulations as temperatures fall below freezing before dawn.

As for school impacts, since most of Monroe County will be above freezing during the cold front passage, I am anticipating a Regular Day for most districts. However, once you start getting into the elevated areas, the argument for Delays becomes strong, particularly for Pocono Mountain School District. I also think there is a non-zero chance for a closing or virtual day, but snowfall would have to over-perform and temperatures would have to fall below freezing faster than forecast (a scenario also confined to the higher elevations).

School districts northwest of Monroe County, near and around the Scranton area, will likely have a more widespread snowfall event (1 to 3 inches). I highly recommend checking out the Premium Site as it issues hourly school predictions out to four days in advance for 12 counties in NEPA (which includes Scranton area, the Poconos, and the Lehigh Valley). The site is showing more favorable odds for impacts in the interior parts of NEPA, check it out (it’s also a great way to support the site)!

I plan on issuing the Second Prediction tomorrow evening; by then, forecasts should be able to work most of the details out. Thank you everyone for the support and have a great rest of your evening!