The National Weather Service has updated the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning, in effect until 6 PM Tuesday, and is now calling for 4 to 12 inches of snowfall. This down significantly from this morning’s 12 to 18 inch forecast. I ended up not doing a Second Prediction because model guidance was (and still is) projecting much lower snowfall totals and I was expecting the forecast to change significantly.

Currently, snow is falling in many higher elevated areas. Temperatures will drop overnight to below freezing throughout the county. As temperatures drop, precipitation will begin to convert to snow for the rest of the county. However, per recent model guidance, some areas may only see a trace of snowfall and at most six inches! The main reason why model guidance is not snow-friendly is because of the placement of the inverted trough discussed yesterday (an area of precipitation that can form as a storm develops); the inverted trough is projected to be further northeast of our area, which would significantly limit snow accumulations.

Once again, this winter continues to throw wrenches and curveballs that are not favorable for snow lovers, and unfortunately confidence is also low for tomorrow’s prediction. Given elevation will play a factor, I do believe upper elevated districts are likely to close, if not delay, whereas the lower elevations may be able to stick with a regular day or delay out of precaution. At this point, I am pretty much begging for winter to be over given how atrocious my school prediction accuracy has been in addition to the many events that have caused pure frustration.

Do keep an eye out for alerts over the next 12 hours; my gut tells me schools are likely to wait until the morning to make a decision, especially given today’s lack of snow. Have a safe evening everyone and thank you for the support!