Good evening everyone! Attached is the Second Prediction for Thursday, December 15, and the First Prediction for Friday, December 16, 2022.
A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from 7 AM Thursday until 7 AM Friday. The National Weather Service expects 4 to 7 inches of snowfall, primarily during the daylight hours on Thursday, and 0.10 inches of ice. On the surface, this would argue for closings and virtual days for both Thursday and Friday, but there are a few things to consider.
First, most model guidance has the snow entering the area and accumulating around 1 PM Thursday. This would be enough time for schools to conduct early dismissals – a 7 AM start time would not. In addition, model guidance does suggest temperatures will rise above freezing around 7 PM Thursday evening, which by then precipitation would convert to plain rain. Personally, I still think at least delays are on the table for Friday as schools at a minimum would need time to do snow cleanup for buses and buildings. However, model guidance does have a tendency to warm temperatures too quickly and there are a few outputs which suggest snow continuing into Friday morning. If this is the case, then closings would become the more likely outcome.
I am hoping by tomorrow evening, model guidance and forecasts come into better agreement on the start time and where temperatures will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. For tonight’s predictions, I am purposefully being conservative (early dismissals and delays) as I would rather work my way up to more aggressive scenarios (closings) than work down from them as I do not want to create unnecessary hype. I plan on issuing the Final Prediction for Thursday and the Second Prediction for Friday tomorrow evening.
As always, thank you very much for the support as it is appreciated. Have a great rest of your evening!
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