Good morning everyone! Attached is the Second Prediction for December 14, 2020.
Model guidance continues to have disagreement over the exact start time and snowfall amounts. I do believe we will see some snowfall out of this, but I do not think it will enough to cause closings. The morning bus runs should be clear enough to run safely, which tells me school districts may do a quick turn-around early dismissal to squeeze in the school day. If the less snowier scenarios pan out (less than 1 inch), schools may stick with a Regular Day; anything above that would push the early dismissals odds up. I plan on issuing the Final Prediction tonight; depending on how guidance and forecasts trend will determine if I make the Regular Day or Early Dismissal scenario the most likely.
As for Wednesday/Thursday, model guidance continues to insist on a major winter storm event and it appears increasingly likely that our area will be in the jackpot zone (12″+). A First Prediction for Wednesday will be issued this evening. I do want to address the comments on virtual learning, the hybrid model, and its impacts to school closings. To my understanding, schools using the hybrid model still require teachers to go to the buildings. In addition, some schools that are 100% virtual cannot fully avoid snow days since a major snowstorm that causes power outages can disrupt online learning. Below is a recent article that includes related commentary from the Northampton Area School District Superintendent. My plan is to keep the predictions as is unless a state-wide mandate forces schools to react differently; we will adapt as the situation evolves. I do encourage that you adjust the scenarios accordingly to your local district. For example, if your school would do a virtual day instead of a closing, treat the Closing odds as “Virtual Day” odds.
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