Good evening everyone. Attached is the FINAL Prediction for February 23, 2018. Now, before looking at the graphic, I need to provide some context behind my thought process as things have significantly changed.
The National Weather Service has an advisory in effect from 7 AM until 1 PM Friday. On the surface, this looks like the morning bus runs would be impacted and therefore closings are theoretically possible. However, upon digging into the hourly forecast data, most, if not all, of the freezing rain is expected around 11 AM/12 PM. In fact, the morning bus runs will likely be in good shape for two reasons: first, there will likely not be any frozen precipitation between now and 11 AM/12 PM; and second, temperatures are not anticipated to get as cold as expected overnight tonight, which would limit the opportunities for any freezing of roadways.
In my mind, I am using deduction to figure out the most likely scenarios for tomorrow. In my opinion, delays do not seem like a logistical solution (can’t delay and early dismiss in the same day). Closings, while not completely off the table, seem very unlikely given the observations and hourly forecast data. This leaves a Regular Day and Early Dismissals left. Given temperatures will be marginal for freezing rain, and with temperatures expected to rise above freezing by the afternoon bus runs (in fact, it may stay above freezing in the valleys during this event), there is an argument for a Regular Day. With that said, any ice is nothing to balk about, and since most of it is expected in the early-afternoon, there is also a Early Dismissal risk.
Given the many unknowns and the sensitive factors of the situation, I feel this is the time to do a split prediction between a Regular Day and an Early Dismissal. I did include a 10% risk for closings in the event the mountain areas do freeze up overnight, but I do think this risk is low (I did not dedicate these odds to a delay since a delay would be in conflict with an early dismissal). Generally speaking, I do not like doing split predictions because it comes across as indecisive; however, I think this situation warrants it. In fact, I would not be surprised if Pocono Mountain cancels afternoon parent-teacher conferences (equivalent to that of an early dismissal) while the more valley-focused schools have a full day.
I would pay very close attention to your local sources for any school announcements. If traveling, do so with caution just to be safe. Have a good evening everyone.
