Good evening everyone! For perhaps the last time this winter, attached is the FINAL Prediction for Tuesday, March 3, 2026. We have a lot of updates to go over, as there have been major shifts in the prediction. There’s a lot of detail here and it’s worth a read.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 AM until 7 PM tomorrow; the National Weather Service is calling for up to 1 inch of snow and up to 0.10 inches of ice, concentrated in the higher elevations. There has been conflicting data around the start time of the snow; from what I see from forecasts and model data, the most likely start time is around 7/8 AM. This would start to encroach on the morning bus runs. Precipitation is expected to start off as snow, switch to freezing rain, then convert to rain. The timeline of this will vary significantly by elevation: lower elevations will see rain as early as noon, while higher elevated areas will not see above freezing temperatures until 4 PM.
The best way to look at this by examining each possible outcome for its practicality. Let’s start with delays: these don’t make sense as shifting the morning bus runs later would push them more into the snow and ice. If schools decide to delay initially, I would not be surprised to see them having to go virtual or close as the snow and ice picks up. A similar arguement can be made for early dismissals: shifting the afternoon bus runs earlier would place them in the middle of the icy conditions, rather than waiting until the normal runs to allow temperatures to get above freezing. Canceling activities doesn’t make sense as these bus runs are even later in the afternoon, when temperatures are more above freezing.
The question then boils down to a Regular Day or a Closing/Virtual Day. There have been reports of many districts sending home laptops or virtual work in case virtual days are called in the morning; while not a guarantee, this is usually a tell-tale sign for Virtual Days. There is also an arguement for Regular Days; if snow and ice holds off until 8/9 AM, allowing morning buses to be unaffected, and by allowing temperatures to rise above freezing by noon (for the lower elevations), a Regular Day might work out. Plus, accumulations in general are going to be light in the lower elevations (about 0.5 inches of snow and less than 0.05 inches of ice).
The very beginning and end of winter tends to have these thread-the-needle situations that make it… challenging… to predict for, but I think this is the most logical approach I can think of for tomorrow. Given the widespread reports of laptops being sent home, model guidance trends over the past few hours, and with schools still having one more virtual day in the bank, my gut tells me they will play it safe and go virtual… high confidence for Pocono Mountain, but it’s going to be close for the others. Keep an eye out for alerts in the morning, be safe if traveling, and thank you for another winter of supporting the service!
