Good afternoon everyone. Well, I think it is safe to say this storm is going to overperform in the snow department. Sleet that was anticipated to push north into the Poconos ended up stalling in the Lehigh Valley. What this means is the Poconos will continue to remain all snow for the rest of the event (concluding after midnight tonight). Snowfall forecasts will either verify or exceed the top end of their ranges. Frankly, my 9 to 15-inch call is going to bust. As of 3 PM, about 12 to 15 inches of snow has been observed; at the same time, the National Weather Service issued a forecast update calling for an additional 4 to 8 inches of snowfall for the remainder of the event. In essence, about 16 to 23 inches of snowfall will likely be the final total for the region. It is actually possible that the Poconos end up getting near or in the jackpot zone. Stay off the roads for the remainder of the day!
Pleasant Valley and Pocono Mountain school districts have already called for a traditional snow day for Monday and I would anticipate the other districts to follow. While East Stroudsburg has the in-service day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it postponed or moved to virtual.
Looking ahead for the rest of the week, bitterly cold temperatures will be in place. The Second Prediction for Tuesday and a First Prediction for Wednesday has been issued. In fact, there is a chance school predictions will need to be issued for each day of the week due to cold wind chills. Remember, what matters in determining if a cold weather advisory is issued (which is correlated with delays) is the wind chill factor, not necessarily the air temperature alone. For now, I am keeping Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s odds the same since the wind chill factor for both days is about the same. I will be paying close attention to what the National Weather Service says to guide the prediction probabilities. It’s going to be a busy week!
Times like these are when the Premium site comes in handy! Members get access to specific predictions for their local districts and zip codes. The site also produces graphics for NEPA, the state of PA, and the Northeast USA. I personally use the site to guide my public predictions for Monroe County.
The Final Prediction for Tuesday, the Second Prediction for Wednesday, and if needed the First Prediction for Thursday will be issued tomorrow evening. Be safe everyone and have a great rest of your evening!
