Good evening everyone and Happy Saturday. The winter storm for tomorrow is now on the doorstep. I have decided to lock in the FINAL Prediction for Monday and issue a First Prediction for Tuesday. Let’s get right to it!

The National Weather Service has adjusted their Winter Storm Warning to be from 2 AM Sunday until 1 PM Monday – an hour later start time – and have lowered their snowfall range to 10 to 13 inches. The jackpot zone of 18 inches+, isolated 24 inches, continues to target the PA/NY border into upstate NY. There is heavy debate in the meteorological community on how far north sleet will push during the day tomorrow, with the consensus of ideas landing squarely in the Poconos. Some suggest the sleet will only reach I-78 (the Allentown area), while others suggest it could get as far north as Scranton. Any sleet that occurs, and the longer it lasts, will take away from snowfall totals.

Given observations, model guidance, forecasts, and historical patterns, I am personally going with a final forecast of 9 to 15 inches of snowfall. I do think sleet is going to reach at least I-80, possibly as far as Mount Pocono, which is going to cut down snow expectations. Regardless, many schools have started to make closing announcements for Monday, and frankly, I do not think there will be enough time for schools to adequately clean up from this event, with snow/sleet expected to last until the early morning hours on Monday. There I am going 100% on the closing probabilities for Monday.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, very cold air is going to flood in after this storm, which could push wind chill values into the -10s. If so, this would meet the threshold for Cold Weather Advisories, which have a strong correlation with school delays. Therefore, I am kicking off a First Prediction favoring the delay scenario. If Cold Weather Advisories are issued, this would increase the delay probabilities, and vice versa.

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The Second Prediction for Tuesday will be issued tomorrow evening. Be safe everyone, stay warm, and thank you for the support!