Break out the yardsticks!

Good evening everyone. I hope everyone was able to stay warm over the last few days. We do have a major winter storm on tap for this weekend to discuss and impacts to schools are certainly on the table for Monday.

I do want to address some housekeeping. I did notice some comments around the lack of delays and advisories for this morning’s temperatures. School districts typically (not guaranteed to) delay whenever there is a Cold Weather Advisory, and vice versa without one. The Cold Weather Advisory is determined by how low the wind chill factor gets, which considers both air temperature and wind speeds. Therefore, it is possible for one night to have 0*F air temperature but a -15*F wind chill factor, triggering the advisory; while the next night gets down to -5*F air temperature, but no wind results in -5*F wind chill factor and no advisory.

Moving on to this weekend: at this point, there is high confidence of impactful snow starting after midnight Sunday morning and continuing until midnight Sunday night/Monday morning. Based on current model guidance, meteorologist commentary, and history, I am going with an initial forecast of 12 to 18 inches of light powder snow, with no ice expected. There will likely be a 24-inch jackpot zone with this storm, but I think it will end up south of the Poconos. There is still time for adjustments, but I think it is unlikely at this point that the forecast will reverse completely or deviate to something less impactful.

The game plan will be as follows… starting Friday evening, I will issue a First Prediction for Monday; on Saturday, I will issue the Second Prediction; and on Sunday, the Final Prediction will be issued. I do think based on the timing and the amount of snowfall this will probably be a duel between closings and delays. As Sunday evolves, I will need help with road conditions to get an accurate picture as to how conditions evolve: this will help guide the prediction for Monday.

This is a fantastic time to sign up for Premium membership: the site has been overhauled and now features district-by-district predictions for all of PA (including an easy search feature), a zip code prediction tool, Northeast USA school predictions, and the original NEPA graphics. Membership is valid for a year: signing up now provides membership for the rest of this winter and into the first half of next winter.

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I will continue to post updates as we get closer. Thank you everyone for the support and have a great rest of your evening!