Good morning everyone and Happy Thursday! We have some ice in the forecast for tomorrow; a First Prediction for Friday has been issued.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday until 9 AM later that day. The National Weather Service is anticipating up to 0.10 inches of ice for the county.
There is some discrepancy within model guidance data. The typically more reliable models align with the National Weather Service thinking, with some freezing rain before sunrise, then quickly transitioning to rain as time progresses. Others suggest the precipitation does not arrive until temperatures rise above freezing, resulting in little to no freezing rain. While I think the National Weather Service’s thinking is right, I cannot dismiss the “bust” scenario.
I am leaning more conservative in this prediction until I see more data agreement behind the freezing rain scenario. For now, I do favor delays (50%), with a 25% chance for closings in those more suseptible to freezing rain (i.e. Pocono Mountain). I am also keeping a 25% chance of a Regular Day on the table in case the freezing rain does not pan out as currently forecasted.
I plan on issuing a Final Prediction this evening. Have a great day everyone and thank you for the support!
Picture Correction: it should say “First Prediction,” not Final.