Good evening everyone! Below is the Second Prediction for Friday, November 22, 2024 and a First Prediction for Thursday, November 21, 2024.
Unfortunately due to travel I cannot generate my normal prediction graphics, but I can provide a brief update. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the county from 4 PM Thursday until 4 PM Friday. The NWS is calling for 4 to 8 inches of snowfall, but upon closer inspection this will be concentrated in the highest elevations. For locations below 1,000 feet, it is reasonable to expect a coating or less, especially with the expectation of temperatures just above freezing. However, those above 1,000 feet and higher are fair game for snow accumulations.
In short, for Thursday, I can see elevated districts (i.e. Pocono Mountain) possibly canceling after school activities whereas the rest of the county keeps them, therefore my odds for Thursday are as follows:
Regular Day: 75%, No Activities: 25%.
Friday is going to be challenging and very dynamic depending on elevation. Due to their generally lower elevation, I can see Pleasant Valley and Stroudsburg going in on time, Pocono Mountain closings or going virtual, and East Stroudsburg (nestled between higher and lower elevations) delaying. Therefore, the Second Prediction is as follows:
Regular Day: 50%, Delay: 25%, Closing: 25%.
I know Pleasant Valley has a scheduled early dismissal on Friday, and being frank I am not sure how that would impact their decision making. I suspect if they have the desire to delay, they will find a way to cancel the early dismissal, but that is my opinion not knowing anything else.
I plan on issuing the Final Predictions tomorrow. Thanks everyone for your support and understanding and have a great rest do your day!
UPDATE: Thanks everyone for the information on Pleasant Valley. They will close if inclement weather occurs for them and make up the day on June 2. Considering this, I do think this could change the odds for the Final Prediction; I plan on issuing the Final Prediction Thursday morning.