Good evening everyone! I hope your week is progressing well. Attached are the Second Predictions for Thursday and Friday, January 19, 2024.

Starting with Thursday, there is the possibility for light snow during the afternoon hours. Model guidance is suggesting areas on and north of the northern edge of Monroe County may get up to one inch at most, but most of the county should receive less than half an inch. In fact, the most recent model guidance and forecasts are suggesting at trace at best. Considering these trends, I did increase the regular day odds. Cancellation of activities is still a possibility, specifically for the northern areas and early dismissals, while highly unlikely, still have a non-zero chance of occurring.

Shifting gears to Friday, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 12 AM Friday until 7 PM Friday. The advisory calls for 2 to 4 inches of snowfall, which is aligned with the earlier estimates discussed yesterday. The timing of the snowfall is not favorable at all for the morning bus runs, or any of the bus runs frankly. Some model guidance is suggesting snow may not start until 10 AM, so I am allocating a 20% probability to early dismissals, but I suspect virtual days and closings will be the dominating reaction for Friday.

I plan on issuing the Final Prediction for Thursday tomorrow morning. Assuming confidence remains high, I will issue Friday’s Final Prediction tomorrow morning alongside Thursday’s Final Prediction; if not, then I’ll publish it Friday early-evening. Have a great evening everyone and thank you for the support!