Good evening everyone! I hope you all had a great weekend. Attached is the FINAL Prediction for Monday, December 11, 2023.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 AM tonight until 12 PM tomorrow. The National Weather Service is calling for 2 to 3 inches in the Pocono Plateau region (elevated areas) and up to 5 inches for locations above 1,800 feet. Lower elevations below 1,000 are likely to experience a coating to an inch at most. Below is the latest forecast from the National Weather Service; you can see how elevation plays a role and that not much has changed versus yesterday.
One thing to keep in mind is temperatures for most locations (at or below 1,500 feet) will likely remain at or above freezing during this event; therefore I am expecting accumulations to be minimal on roadways. However, locations above 1,500 feet will likely stay at or below freezing through the late morning and perhaps all day, which could make possible delays a mute point specifically for the highest elevations.
I did make additional adjustments made to the prediction. In determining the final numbers, I decided to approach things on a district-by-district basis within the county. Given Stroudsburg is mostly in the lower elevations, I believe it is likely they will go in on time. Pleasant Valley is slightly more elevated than Stroudsburg, but if I had to pick I suspect they would probable go in on time as well, since historically (not always) they tend to mirror Stroudsburg. In recent history, East Stroudsburg has been trending towards more reactions than Pleasant Valley and Stroudsburg, but not the extent of Pocono Mountain, so I would not be surprised to see them conduct a delay. Lastly for Pocono Mountain, I am actually thinking a closing or virtual day may make more sense than a delay since I am not sure if road conditions are going to improve much over a two or three hour period. Considering all of this, I am locking in the prediction at 50% Regular Day, 25% Delay, and 25% Closing for the county. What specific school districts end up doing may vary from what I thought out, but I do think these percentages reflect the general idea.
Do keep an eye out for school announcements tomorrow morning. Thank you everyone for the support, be safe if traveling tomorrow, and have a great rest of your evening!
Elevated school districts north and west of Monroe County will likely have more widespread school impacts given their higher elevations. I highly recommend checking out the Premium Site as it issues hourly school predictions out to four days in advance for 12 counties in NEPA (which includes Scranton area, the Poconos, and the Lehigh Valley). The site is showing more favorable odds for impacts in the interior parts of NEPA, check it out! It’s also a great way to support the site!
