Good evening everyone! Attached is the FINAL Prediction for Monday, December 14, and the First Prediction for Wednesday, December 16, 2020. We have a lot to unpack – let’s get to it.

Starting with Monday, model guidance and forecasts are coming to consensus on 1 to 3 inches of snowfall from 8 AM until 2 PM. However, there are many numerous variables at play that make the prediction challenging. First, the timing makes Early Dismissals unfavorable because schools would be dismissing into the snow; however, I could still see this scenario pan out if schools “forget about” the snow tomorrow and have to urgently-dismiss last minute (because all of the attention is on Wednesday/Thursday). This puts schools into a Regular Day versus Closing/Virtual scenario. I favor the Regular day scenario for two reasons: I’d rather predict too conservatively than be too aggressive (and be called a hypist) and air/ground temperatures will limit road accumulations. What does not help is that school districts have different hybrid plans, making it hard to do a one-size-fits-all prediction for the county in this situation. I do admit confidence is low for this prediction; I would pay close attention to school sources for any announcements tomorrow.

Now to address Wednesday/Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect, calling for at least 12 inches of snowfall. Frankly, given how model guidance has trended, I would not be surprised if we end up in an 18″+ band due to the storm’s location and cold temperatures (allowing more snow to be generated from the storm’s moisture, a.k.a. higher snow ratios). Now the one caveat is Wednesday is typically (not for all) an all virtual day, but I believe teachers still have to report to the buildings. I kept a 20% No Activities in case the storm arrives later than currently projected. While I understand there is a ban on After School Activities, I do not know if this ban is limited to sports or if it impacts clubs as well, so I am treating the scenario as if not ban is in place. I will issue the Second Prediction for Wednesday and the First Prediction for Thursday tomorrow evening.

It’s going to be an interesting week – thank you for riding along with me! Want to help out the service or looking for a Christmas gift? Check out the Premium Site and Merchandise!