Good evening everyone! Attached is the First Prediction for November 18, 2019.

Around 0.05 inches of freezing rain is anticipated between 12 AM and 4 AM Monday morning. Because this is occurring when schools typically make their initial evaluations, I suspect districts may delay out of precaution. However, there is still uncertainty in the forecast. Some guidance does not have any precipitation arriving until after temperatures rise above freezing (40% Regular Day). On the other hand, guidance can underplay the affects of cold air damming, which causes colder temperatures to linger longer than projected (10% Closing). We should have a better idea of what is most likely going to occur tomorrow. Interestingly, it does not appear elevation has as much of an influence as it normally would for this event – the 0.05 inches of ice is expected throughout all of Monroe County.

The current plan is to issue the Final Prediction tomorrow evening. By then, we should have a fine-tuned idea of what to anticipate. Have a good evening everyone and thank you for the support!

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