Good morning everyone. Attached are the First Predictions for Thursday, February 22, and Friday, February 23, 2018. We have a lot to discuss, so let’s get to it…
On Thursday, temperatures will gradually fall below freezing as a cold front passes through. Rain will be occurring during the afternoon hours but will convert to sleet and freezing rain around 4 PM, especially for the mountain areas. The timing of this transition is during the activity bus runs; I suspect schools may cancel after-school activities given these circumstances. I expect anywhere between 0 to 0.15″ of freezing rain or 0 to 1″ of sleet; the higher elevations will likely see the upper-end of these precipitation ranges.
Our attention then turns to Friday, but we cannot forget about Thursday’s precipitation either. On Friday, significant freezing rain (accumulations between 0.1 and 0.2″) is expect to arrive around 1 PM; this creates an almost textbook early dismissal situation. The problem is temperatures Thursday night are expect to fall and remain below freezing, which could cause Thursday’s precipitation to freeze on roadways by Friday morning. The overnight lows are only expected to fall into the mid/upper 20s, so the “flash freeze” risk for Friday will not be as significant as the events from a few weeks ago; however, the lingering impacts from Thursday could theoretically cause delays on Friday.
Now we have a delay argument going against an early dismissal situation — generally speaking, school districts cannot delay and early dismiss within the same day. To me, given Friday’s precipitation is of more importance, delays are not likely because school districts would need to preserve the option to early dismiss. With that said, if road conditions happen to be poor Friday morning, schools may close out of precaution because of the multiple freezing risks would put pressure on both morning and afternoon bus runs. Given these circumstances, I do, for now, favor closings over early dismissals for Friday, especially for the mountain areas.
I will be monitoring how model guidance trends over the next 24 hours and for any National Weather Service advisories; the “in effect” period for these advisories could be very influential in how school districts react on both Thursday and Friday. I will be back with updates most likely tomorrow morning. Have a good day everyone.
