Good evening everyone. Attached is the Final Prediction for tonight’s event. My School Reaction Model, past events that are very similar to this event, and other statistical calculations all support the closing option for tomorrow morning.
A break in the snow is expected this evening, but snow will return and increase in intensity beginning around midnight. Around 4 AM, the snow is expected to convert over to freezing rain. Since precipitation rates could be high during this time period, I remain aggressive with my forecast of 0.1-0.25″ of ice.
The key to this prediction verifying is for there to be moderate or heavy rates of snow or (more likely) ice around 4/5 AM. This is when schools that are not delayed typically make a morning decision. I distinctly remember an event almost identical to tonight’s setup that happened last year. Then, I predicted a delay, assuming the warming temperatures would melt the ice for the delay bus runs to work out. However, schools closed even after delaying the night before since the ice was sudden and it could not melt quickly enough.
It is possible for schools to make a delay call tonight then re-evaluate in the morning, but I do not know what the likelihood of this is. I will keep an eye on observations and trends as the night progresses.
Road conditions are beginning to deteriorate. Please use caution if you are out on the roads this evening or tomorrow morning. If you can safely send in images of road conditions, that would be greatly appreciated. Thanks again for the support and have a safe evening.
